La OPEP+ debate las consecuencias de su recorte en la producción de petróleo

Los miembros de la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) y sus aliados se reúnen este sábado para debatir las consecuencias de su drástica reducción de la producción puesta en marcha para contrarrestar los efectos de la pandemia del coronavirus.

Esta cumbre, prevista inicialmente para la semana siguiente y que comienza a las 12H00 GMT, se adelantó a propuesta del ministro argelino de Energía, Mohamed Arkab, que ocupa la presidencia rotatoria de la OPEP. La reunión se celebrará por videoconferencia debido a las restricciones de viaje.

El arma habitual del cartel, cerrar el grifo para sostener los precios, fue utilizada este año con un vigor que marca un hito.

Tras un acuerdo alcanzado el 12 de abril, los países de la OPEP y sus aliados decidieron retirar del mercado, del 1 de mayo a finales de junio, 9,7 millones de barriles diarios (mbd), es decir, alrededor del 10% de la oferta mundial antes de la crisis, para enfrentar una caída de la demanda sin precedentes agravada por la pandemia.

Según el acuerdo, esta medida se irá suavizando a partir de julio y la reducción pasará a 7,7 mbd de julio a diciembre, luego a 5,8 mbd desde enero de 2021 hasta abril de 2022.

«Parece muy probable [que la OPEP+] prolongue un mes más las reducciones actuales de mayo-junio», consideró Bjornar Tonhaugen, analista en Rystad Energy.

Algunos analistas y observadores apuestan por una prórroga más larga, hasta después del verano o incluso hasta final de año.

Aunque en muchas partes del mundo está en marcha, el desconfinamiento no ha hecho que el consumo de crudo vuelva a su nivel anterior a la crisis, que ya era inferior a la oferta en ese momento.

– Piedra en el zapato –

Como ocurre a menudo, las negociaciones se auguran complicadas entre Rusia y Arabia Saudita, los dos pesos pesados del grupo, que incluso desencadenaron una corta pero intensa guerra de precios tras el fracaso de negociaciones anteriores a principios de marzo.

La conformidad entre los compromisos asumidos por los países y su aplicación podría ser la principal piedra en el zapato: este tema espinoso «complica los esfuerzos» de todo el grupo, según Al Stanton, analista de RBC.

Según los cálculos del proveedor de datos Kpler, el cártel ampliado redujo su producción alrededor de 8,6 mbd en mayo, es decir, un 11% menos que el volumen previsto. Irak y Nigeria están en la mira.

A pesar de esas dudas, la política de la OPEP ha mostrado su eficacia ya que los precios subieron a principios de junio a alrededor de 40 dólares el barril de petróleo de referencia estadounidense, el West Texas Intermediate (WTI), y su equivalente europeo, el Brent del Mar del Norte.

Los precios habían alcanzado su punto más bajo histórico alrededor del 20 de abril, cruzando el umbral de los 15 dólares para el Brent y pasando incluso en negativo para el WTI.

741 thoughts on “La OPEP+ debate las consecuencias de su recorte en la producción de petróleo

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